FXUS62 KJAX 060156 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 952 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 .UPDATE... THE EARLIER ZONE PACKAGE CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS THIS EVENING AND NO UPDATES ARE NECESSARY. THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY NOW STRETCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG SEABREEZE AND STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. SOME OF THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ALONG AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER GEORGIA WHERE THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. && .AVIATION...ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED AWAY FROM KSSI AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KJAX AND POSSIBLY KCRG THROUGH AROUND 03Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STAY AWAY FROM KGNV OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUSTAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHULER/ZAPPE FXUS62 KJAX 060713 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 314 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 .SHORT TERM... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA (FA) INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD HANGS IN THERE THROUGH MONDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE ATLANTIC RIDGING CONTINUES WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH SOME PULSE SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUING ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. AS WE START GETTING INTO WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FA WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE POPS FOR MID WEEK. .LONG TERM... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK AND AMPLIFIES THE EASTERN SEABOARD TROUGH. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY CAUSE A BREAK IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH ONE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A SECOND WEST OF US OVER THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A NICE WEAKNESS TO OUR EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE GONE WITH VCTS AFTER 19Z AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR VSBY BETWEEN 20Z-24Z. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPS RATES AND INSTABILITY AND HAVE ADDED A VRB15G25KT WIND IN THE TEMPO GROUPS. DURING THE EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS. && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEK. WINDS SOUTH 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT A LITTLE STRONGER AT NIGHT OFFSHORE AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 71 89 70 / 70 50 60 20 SSI 87 74 87 76 / 50 40 50 30 JAX 90 71 89 71 / 50 40 50 30 SGJ 89 73 86 73 / 40 30 50 30 GNV 90 70 90 70 / 50 30 50 30 OCF 92 71 91 72 / 40 30 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SANDRIK/PETERSON/ FXUS62 KJAX 061321 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 921 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 .UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND A LIGHT SW FLOW. PWAT AT 1.76 WITH MODIFIED CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND LI -6. UPPER LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY PUSHING A TROUGH INTO GA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP NW OF THE AREA AND MOVE INTO SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SEABREEZE FRONTS TO MOVE INLAND AND COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR PRODUCING SCATTERED PULSE STORMS OVER NE FL. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD RANGING FROM 50 PERCENT SOUTH TO 70 PERCENT NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGES EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT TAF SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-00Z PRODUCING TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE...LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BECOME SE BY AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE FORMING. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A SW STORM MOTION TODAY WILL MOVE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WATERS FROM LAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 71 89 70 / 70 50 60 20 SSI 87 74 87 76 / 50 40 50 30 JAX 90 71 89 71 / 50 40 50 30 SGJ 89 73 86 73 / 40 30 50 30 GNV 90 70 90 70 / 50 30 50 30 OCF 92 71 91 72 / 40 30 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ ZIBURA//WALKER FXUS62 KJAX 061745 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 145 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008 .SHORT TERM...FLORIDA WEST COAST SEABREEZE FIRING UP WITH STORMS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND AS STORMS ENCOUNTER THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE. SE GEORGIA QUIET SO FAR DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AL AND NW GA IS SETTING OFF STORMS TO OUR NW WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT SE GA BY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGHING WILL LIFT TO THE NE ON MONDAY BUT TRAILING VORT LOBE WILL LINGER OVER SE GA ALONG WITH HIGH PWATS/INSTABILITY. THIS WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO MIDWEEK. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS CENTRAL FL FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF BY NEXT WEEKEND. GFS PROGS PWATS TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST IN SCATTERED RANGE AS MEX GUIDANCE INDICATES. && .AVIATION...NUMEROUS TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH 02-03Z NEAR ALL SITES AGAIN TODAY WITH MICROBURSTS THE MAIN CONCERN AS WELL AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS CAUSING VARIED WIND SHIFTS AT PORTS. MVFR BR POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK MON DUE TO ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE. ONCE AGAIN TSRA EXPECTED TO BE IN VC OF ALL SITES MON AFTN/EVENING. && .MARINE...NO HEADLINES. NOCTURNAL SLY SURGES ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. SSE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SSW BY MIDWEEK AS RIDGE CENTER REBUILDS NWD FROM S FL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 89 69 91 / 60 60 60 40 SSI 75 87 75 87 / 50 60 60 50 JAX 71 89 70 89 / 50 60 60 60 SGJ 73 86 73 87 / 50 70 60 50 GNV 70 90 69 90 / 50 70 60 60 OCF 71 91 71 89 / 40 70 60 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ ZIBURA/ENYEDI/WALKER