AXNT20 KNHC 270919
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 12N to 15N and between 24W and 27W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is
evident near this tropical wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 84W, south
of 19N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. A few showers thunderstorms are
evident near the trough axis over eastern Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 09N to 12N and
between 15W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough in the western Gulf and divergence aloft
continues to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the vicinity of the trough and the northern Gulf waters. The Gulf
of Mexico is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over
the central Atlantic that extends westward into the basin. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh NE
winds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Seas in
these waters are 2-3 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the Gulf
waters through Wed allowing for gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW
Yucatan over the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level trough centered near the central Bahamas
induces scattered showers in the north-central Caribbean,
from eastern Cuba to Grand Cayman. An earlier scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that winds to near gale-force are
occurring in association with the strongest convection. The basin
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned north of the
islands. This ridge forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds
over much of the central and SW Caribbean. Seas in these waters
are 6-9 ft, as shown by recent altimeter satellite data. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 5-7 ft are found in
the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tropical wave will move westward across the
northwest Caribbean today. The Atlantic ridge is building over
the eastern and central Caribbean in the wake of the wave. This
pattern will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas
across the central Caribbean into the middle of the week. Expect
moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the
northwest Caribbean behind the wave axis through Sun with
locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras
Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper level trough from 30N55W to the central Bahamas
continues to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
from the central Bahamas to central Cuba, and north of 27N between
55W and 60W. The Atlantic south of 30N is under the influence of
an expansive subtropical ridge positioned over the central
Atlantic. Fresh easterly winds are found off northern Hispaniola,
along with seas of 4-6 ft. In the far northeast Atlantic, fresh to
locally strong northerly winds are occurring north of 25N and
east of 20W, with the strongest winds affecting the water passages
of the Canary Islands. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will
dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the next several
days. It will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off
the Carolina coast today. The front will stall then dissipate
between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sun into Mon. The pattern
will support fresh south of 22N, and gentle to moderate breezes
elsewhere into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may
increase northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Tue associated
with an approaching tropical wave.

$$
Christensen