AXNT20 KNHC 021733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri May 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea near 07N13W west-southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N20W to 01N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N-09N between the coast of West Africa and 20W. The E
portion of the Pacific monsoon trough is forcing scattered
moderate convection in the SW Caribbean south of 12N east of 81W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A high pressure ridge extends across the SE United States leading
toward generally gentle to moderate SE winds with seas 2-4 ft across
the Gulf this afternoon. The exception is fresh SE winds and 4-6
ft seas on the east side of the diurnal trough extending from
18N94W to 23N93W in the SW Gulf. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 25N-27N between 87W-90W.

For the forecast, the high pressure will be the main feature
controlling the weather pattern across the basin through tonight.
The associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh
east to southeast winds over the basin through Sat morning, except
gentle to moderate in the NE Gulf. East winds will pulse to
strong speeds north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of
Campeche tonight and Sat night in association with a diurnal
trough. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected
across the Straits of Florida through tonight. A weak cold front
will reach the northern Gulf early Sat before shifting east of the
basin Sun night. High pressure will then build southward across
the Gulf leading to mostly moderate to fresh easterly winds over
most of the forecast zones early next week, increasing to fresh to
strong over the western Gulf by early Tue as the gradient
tightens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a 1009 mb
Colombian Low is only forcing generally gentle to moderate trades
and 2-4 ft seas across the Caribbean today. The exceptions are
fresh trades and seas 4-6 ft just south of Hispaniola and through
the Windward Passage. Aside from the convection in the SW
Caribbean associated with the Pacific monsoon trough, no other
significant deep convection is occurring today.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic
combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
northeast winds through the Windward Passage and in the Lee of
Cuba through this morning. At the same time, fresh northeast winds
are expected south of the Dominican Republic, mainly near Cabo
Beata. Fresh to strong northeast winds will materialize through
the Windward Passage again tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will
pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night.
Unsettled weather is expected to continue over most of the eastern
Caribbean into the weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades
and slight to moderate seas are expected over the basin into early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N50W south-southwestward to 16N58W
with a 1014 mb low centered at 29N51W and a second low at 25N52W.
Fresh to strong SE winds with seas 7-9 ft are present from
21N-27N between 45W-50W east of the trough and fresh NE winds with
seas 6-8 ft from 27N-31N from 51W-57W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 21-30N between 45W-52W. On either side of
the trough, a 1024 mb Bermuda High is centered at 32N70W and
another 1024 mb high is at 32N33W. A weak pressure gradient from
the highs to lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing only gentle
to moderate trades with seas 3-6 ft. The exception to that is a
large area of N swell with seas 7-10 ft from 17N-23N east of 20W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front and a surface
trough, with a weak low along it, will persist over the central
Atlantic between 50W and 60W over the next 48 hours or so. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are expected over the NW
part of it today and Sat due to the pressure gradient between the
trough/low and high pressure to the N. The low should dissipate by
Sun, and the trough is forecast to drift westward over the
forecast waters through at least early next week. An area of fresh
to strong easterly winds and rough seas will persist near the
northern end of the trough axis affecting mainly the NE waters.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front may approach then stall near the
southeastern U.S. coast late Sat night into Sun.

$$
Landsea