ACUS11 KWNS 010736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010736 MIZ000-WIZ000-011330- Mesoscale Discussion 2183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the Upper Peninsula of MI and northern/central Lower MI Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 010736Z - 011330Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue across the U.P. of Michigan early this morning. Rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely for at least the next few hours. Across northern/central Lower Michigan, freezing rain will transition to sleet and then heavy snow through 14Z (9 AM EST). Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater may occur. DISCUSSION...A pronounced upper low over IA will continue eastward across the Midwest early this morning. Robust large-scale ascent associated with the exit region of a mid/upper-level jet will likewise shift eastward across the upper Great Lakes region over the next several hours. A snow band oriented generally east-west across the U.P. of MI should persist for at least the next few hours, with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour likely as some lake enhancement occurs given the east-northeasterly fetch off of Lake Superior. Across northern Lower MI, a couple of 07Z surface observations show light freezing rain occurring. This is due to an elevated warm nose centered around 850-700 mb per RAP forecast soundings. This low-level inversion is forecast to gradually erode from west to east across Lower MI over the next few hours as temperatures aloft cool with the approach of the upper low. A transition from light freezing rain to sleet, and eventually snow is expected. Strong lift will occur through the depth of the dendritic growth zone, and snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater appear likely across parts of northern/central Lower MI by 11-12Z (6-7 AM EST) and after. ..Gleason.. 12/01/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45668781 46288890 46608879 46978827 46878756 46688734 46568689 46618646 46768598 46388526 45808440 45568403 45358354 45098329 44738331 44378334 43898385 43218467 43098523 43278605 43518652 43858661 44918729 45668781