ACUS03 KWNS 230726 SWODY3 SPC AC 230725 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE...NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT...MASSACHUSSETTS...RHODE ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...LONG ISLAND...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...AND NORTH DAKOTA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA...NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, and perhaps a developing line of storms, may impact much of New England into parts of the northern Mid Atlantic region Friday, accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. The development of an organized cluster of storms with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts is also possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Discussion... Models indicate that fairly significant troughing within the westerlies will dig across Quebec, northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes through this period. Weaker troughing is also forecast to dig into portions of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, as well as inland across California through the Great Basin. Downstream, a weak perturbation migrating across and east of the northern Rockies may contribute to weak mid-level height falls across the North Dakota vicinity late Friday into Friday night. Otherwise, models indicate that mid/upper heights will remain generally high across much of the central and southern Great Plains through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. I In lower levels, a cold front is likely to advance across much of the Northeast, while its trailing flank continues to stall and weaken across the Ohio Valley through central and southern Great Plains. ...New England into northern Mid Atlantic... Lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may not become particularly steep, but seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still contribute to moderate mixed-layer CAPE with daytime heating. In the presence of 30-50 kt westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading much of the region, the environment may become conducive to organized convection, perhaps including a couple of supercells, and an upscale growing southeastward propagating cluster or line. Strong to severe, potentially damaging, wind gusts, appears the primary hazard, though mid-level cooling across parts of northern New England might become conducive to severe hail. It is still possible that severe probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period, particularly across parts of northern New England, as lingering uncertainties perhaps become better resolved. ...Northern Great Plains... It appears that a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates may overspread much of the northern Great Plains, as the subtle mid-level perturbation emerges from the northern Rockies Friday. Coupled with low-level moistening into the vicinity of the lee surface troughing, this may contribute to moderate to large potential instability by Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms may initiate in the form of high based convective development across eastern Montana into the western Dakotas during the late afternoon, before spreading into this environment and perhaps intensifying/growing upscale in the presence of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. Although shear may be rather modest to weak, the evolution of an organizing cluster with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts might not be out of the question, based on the notable convective signal evident in the 23/00Z NAM, in particular. ..Kerr.. 07/23/2025 $$