ACUS03 KWNS 180830
SWODY3
SPC AC 180829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear
less than 5 percent across the U.S.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper flow may undergo renewed
amplification across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific,
including a significant short wave trough digging south-southeast of
the Gulf of Alaska (roughly along 140W longitude), to the east of
building ridging across and north-northwest of the Aleutians.
Farther east, mid-level ridging is forecast to build inland of the
Pacific coast, with remnant larger-scale downstream troughing
developing eastward across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley.

An initially vigorous short wave perturbation, which earlier emerged
from this troughing, may maintain considerable strength into the day
Friday while progressing east-northeastward toward the lower Great
Lakes region.  However, it is still generally forecast to become
sheared and weaken to the south of a mid-level high centered near
southern Hudson/James Bays.  As it does, the associated occluding
cyclone is forecast to substantively weaken.  It continues to appear
that secondary surface cyclogenesis across and east-northeast of the
Mid Atlantic region will remain subdued, and the primary trailing
surface frontal zone probably will tend to stall near the southern
periphery of the stronger westerlies, across parts of the Carolinas
into the Gulf Coast states by 12Z Saturday.

Further low-level moistening associated with return flow off the
Gulf is probable along and south of this front.  However, warm
layers aloft, near the northwestern periphery of mid/upper
subtropical ridging centered across the Bahamas/Caribbean, may tend
inhibit destabilization and thunderstorm development.  As mid/upper
forcing for ascent, associated with short waves within the strong
flow emerging from the Southwest, remains mostly to the cool side of
the front, potential for stronger thunderstorm development seems
likely to become focused along or just to the cool side of the
frontal zone.

While deep-layer shear near the front is likely to be strong and
potentially supportive of organized thunderstorm development, the
extent to which thermodynamic profiles become conducive to a risk
for severe weather remains unclear.  It appears that
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be generally weak, and most
unstable CAPE is forecast anywhere from modest to weak.  At the
present time the risk for severe thunderstorms Friday through Friday
night appears mostly conditional, and too conditional support a
forecast of 5 percent or greater severe probabilities.  However,
this could still change in later outlook updates for this period,
particularly across parts of the Gulf Coast states.

..Kerr.. 02/18/2026

$$