FOUS30 KWBC 100038 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 838 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026 Day 1 Valid 01Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST... 01Z Update: A well-defined stationary front remains near the Neb/KS border east across northern MO and north-central IL which will sag south overnight. Strong southerly flow from TX/west Gulf will continue to provide moisture (PW up around 1.2") and convergence along the front. This, along with sufficient instability(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will promote further development as activity shifts east overnight. The previous forecast is on track with the ongoing hail-dominant northern KS expected to maintain itself as it shifts east in 40kt bulk shear. The Marginal Risk was expanded east a bit in north-central MO given the trajectory of the ongoing activity. The 3hr FFG around 2" could be locally exceeded. Maintained the Marginal farther north in the cold sector over IA to along the WI/IL border given overrunning/elevated instability around 500 J/kg. The 3hr FFG here around 1.5" may be exceeded. Jackson Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS... 20z Update: The Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall had a minor shift south into northern Oklahoma based on latest CAM consensus. The Marginal Risk was extended farther south into northern Oklahoma, including the Tulsa metro, as models show a southward trend of the maximum QPF where the front aligns. The west to east front stretching from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley today will begin to push southward early tomorrow. This front will then meander across the Central Plains, east into the Lower MO Valley and Mid- Mississippi Valley. PWAT values should increase in the vicinity of this front in response to strengthening southerly low level inflow. Shortwave energy pushing northeastward into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support areas of slow moving convection along this front,locally heavy rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall across these areas. Wilder/Oravec Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... 20z Update: Upgraded to a Slight Risk across West Texas into the Red River Valley. An axis of above average PWATS is expected to move across the Southern and Central Plains on Saturday. Upper dynamics will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough entering the West Coast, as well as a shortwave trough traversing the High Plains. As ridging builds in across the east, this will also promote strong southerly flow and a low level jet over the Southern Plains and Texas to advect moisture and instability in the area. At the surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve as an initiating mechanism for convection. The QPF footprint in the afternoon cycle has a signal for 2-4 inches possible from the Concho Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma. Rainfall rates could also be as high as an inch or two per hour with organized convection likely as noted with SPC's Slight Risk across the region. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall was introduced from West Texas to the Red River Valley on Saturday for the potential of scattered flash flooding. Wilder/Oravec Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt