FOUS30 KWBC 290058 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 858 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Day 1 Valid 01Z Wed Apr 29 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 29 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...01Z Update... Main changes to the Day 1 ERO, now valid from 01-12Z, were to extend the northern periphery of the Slight Risk into parts of northeast AR and western TN, while also peeling away the western fringes of the outlook areas across eastern OK and parts of North TX where the storms have now cleared. The adjustment in the Slight was supported by current observational trends (radar, satellite, and mesoanalysis), as well as with recent HRRR runs as well as the latest HREF and RRFS exceedance probabilities. Hurley ...Previous Discussion... A favorable environment will exist for numerous organized thunderstorms over the southern U.S. today and tonight. Outflow from steadily advancing squall lines over the Tennessee Valley should provide a more distinct focus for renewed convective development over the forecast period. The boundary is likely to be oriented west-east, essentially parallel to 40-50 knot bulk shear vectors. Although the air mass north of the boundary may modify with time, it should still provide low-level convergence and a contrast in instability. South of the boundary, the warm sector will have very strong instability (CAPE over 3000 j/kg) and deep moisture (PW approaching 2 inches; above the 99th percentile for late April). This parameter space is very supportive of high rain rates, potentially in excess of 2 inches per hour in the most intense and organized thunderstorms. If anything, recent hi-res model runs (06Z HRRR, 00Z RRFS in particular) have focused the heavy rainfall signal even more into a corridor approximately 100 miles wide, with 2-4 inch totals and localized maxima even higher. This is consistent with the expected pattern described above, with repeated rounds of thunderstorms along a distinct mesoscale boundary. The main change with this outlook was to narrow the Slight Risk a bit, especially by trimming from the stable (northern) periphery well into the stable side of the mesoscale boundary. It could potentially be focused a bit more, and that will be a consideration later today. A mitigating factor for flash flood impacts could be the severe to extreme drought conditions in place across much of the Slight Risk area. With rain rates potentially in excess of 2 inches per hour, and heavy rain sustained for several hours in some cases, drought conditions may not necessarily prevent impacts but could lead to more isolated instances of flash flooding. This is still consistent with the Slight Risk definition. Flash flood guidance factors in current ground and streamflow conditions, and HREF and REFS probabilities still show about a 15-30 percent chance of exceeding FFG despite the overall dry antecedent setup. Lamers Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 29 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 30 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...2030Z Update... The inherited Marginal Risk was largely maintained with this update. While high resolution guidance now fully encompasses the entirety of the Day 2 period, a lack of agreement on the placement and behavior of the convection does not lend itself to a Slight Risk upgrade at this time. Were one to need to be issued, it appears that portions of northern Louisiana and into southern Mississippi would be the area to highlight. This would be largely dependent on how much convection the area gets tonight with the current convection, as saturated soils across Louisiana would make flash flooding more likely again on Wednesday. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, PWATs will be well above normal for this time of year, supporting storms capable of very heavy rains. Advection into the region will be weak...noting that the stalled front along which any storms from Texas through Alabama would likely form, will also be lacking in forcing. The upper levels will be of minimal help for the storms as well, as a weak fast moving shortwave traverses the region along the jet, likely initiating some convection across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but then quickly departing that convection. Wegman ...Previous Discussion... The outlook for Day 2 has remained mostly unchanged, with a Marginal Risk in a corridor from Texas through Alabama along the western and central Gulf Coast. A threat of excessive rainfall and flash flooding is expected, due to a continuation of strong instability, and the arrival of a plume of unusual amounts of mid- level moisture. Backward trajectory analysis indicates moisture around 3km above the surface can be traced along an anomalously strong subtropical jet extending back into the tropical central Pacific Ocean. This should push PW values over the risk area above 1.7 inches, and above 2 inches in portions of Texas, which is quite unusual for April. Given this, it's possible an upgrade to Slight Risk may be needed in future outlook updates. However, hi-res guidance is just coming into view. While the extended HRRR and RRFS do both show rain rates in this environment reaching (and even exceeding, in some cases) 2 inches per hour, confidence is not high on placement of greater concentrations of convection. Additionally, there doesn't seem to be much signal for backbuilding and training, except perhaps via cell mergers, which could lead to more limited duration of heavy rain. Therefore, the risk level was held at Marginal for now for the entire region. Lamers Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 30 2026 - 12Z Fri May 01 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL TEXAS... ...2030Z Update... Few changes were needed for the risk outlook for Thursday. The lion's share of the convection will occur late Thursday night, generally after midnight, as a weakening but still potent positively-tilted upper level shortwave dives southeastward from the Intermountain West and into the southern Plains. Prior to that, much of Thursday will look like Wednesday, just further west. Plentiful Gulf moisture will run into a stalled out frontal boundary across central Texas, but on rather weak (10-20 kt) southerly flow at 850 mb. Thus, forcing will be the primary limiting factor, since instability and especially moisture will not be. However, on Thursday night as that shortwave ejects towards the Plains, much more plentiful convection will blossom all along the front. There is uncertainty as to where that convection will form, with the Slight Risk highlighting the most likely locations across central Texas. The Slight Risk was expanded east into northern Louisiana as prior days' rains will likely saturate soils such that lesser amounts of rain, likely occurring Thursday night, will still cause widely scattered flash flooding, especially in urban areas such as Shreveport. The Marginal Risk was expanded across much of eastern New Mexico with a small Marginal into southeastern Arizona and far southwestern New Mexico. This new Marginal highlights the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms in an area generally susceptible to flash flooding in an area far enough west to be impacted by the incoming shortwave trough during peak heating, when storms will have more instability to potentially produce localized heavy rain. Wegman ...Previous Discussion... Increasing mid-upper level height falls over New Mexico and Texas, due to a strong shortwave pushing through northern Mexico, should lead to a low-level mass field response with increasing south to southeast inflow across southern and central Texas. That will also lead to a gradual uptick in low-level convergence between the developing low-level jet, and an easterly cool conveyor belt to the north, in a more stable region from Oklahoma into northwest Texas. The result should be more numerous thunderstorms over the course of the Day 3 period, particularly by Thursday Night. Deep moisture will remain firmly in place, although the instability should shift to a narrower CAPE profile with lower equilibrium levels. That trend, in combination with PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches, should support increasingly efficient, warm rain processes in convective bands. Furthermore, some training of the lower-topped convective bands may occur. With stronger instability over South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and far northeast Mexico, and steadily increasing forcing from the approaching wave upstream, persistent new convective growth upstream of convective bands is plausible. Putting all these factors together, a Slight Risk was introduced over Central Texas. This was placed where drought conditions either do not exist or are much lower on the scale; that also happens to be where some ensemble QPF signal is strongest. It's possible the Slight Risk may trend southeast with time as AI guidance is positioned on the southeast flank of the guidance envelope, and would seem to be a logical corrective to the usual bias of QPF maxima placed too far in the direction of a stable air mass, especially with 2-3 days of lead time. Lamers Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt