FOUS30 KWBC 060006
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Nov 06 2025 - 12Z Thu Nov 06 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 06 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 07 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON, AS WELL AS THE
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON...

While the bulk of the forecast rainfall on Day 1 comes early with
a distinct lull in moderate to heavy precipitation across the PacNW
through much of Wednesday evening and night, precipitation looks
to ramp up once again by midday Thursday (Day 2) as yet another
atmospheric river makes landfall. While this AR increasingly looks
to be significantly weaker and disjointed, additional rainfall
totals of up to 2-3" are still possible for portions of CA/OR/WA
(though forecast amounts have decreased to areal averages of 1-2").
The Marginal Risk areas were maintained for now, focused on the
regions where 2-5" of rainfall may occur through the end of Day 1.
There may be reconsideration of one or both of the Marginal Risk
areas for futures updates, given the trend lower in the forecast
rainfall amounts (while already being a relatively borderline
outlook based largely on expected wet antecedent conditions).

Churchill


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 07 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley/Churchill


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt