FOUS30 KWBC 021500 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Day 1 Valid 1456Z Mon Nov 02 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 03 2026 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA... ...Florida... 15Z Special: A targeted MDT risk has been added in coordination with the Melbourne WFO due to significant rainfall and high-end impacts occurring from a convergent band of heavy precipitation over the east-central FL coast. Rainfall totals of 5-15" have fallen in a narrow corridor between Melbourne down to just north of Fort Pierce leading to widespread flash flooding in this zone, especially just south of Melbourne proper. More on this setup will be included in the official 16z update. Kleebauer ..Previous Discussion.. While PWs are forecast to drop off some, persistent easterly flow will continue to support an anomalously moist airmass -- fueling another day of potentially heavy amounts and flash flooding along the eastern peninsula, especially from the Space Coast down to southeastern Florida. A Slight Risk was maintained along this area, highlighting where both the HREF and REFS indicate localized amounts over 3 inches are likely today. ...Midwest/Plains... A highly-amplified and multi-stream upper trough is forecast to move east of the Rockies into the Plains today, producing widespread precipitation across the central U.S. A well-defined shortwave within the base of the trough will move from the Four Corners this morning, into the central and southern Plains by this evening. The potential for heavy rain is expected to increase this evening across portions of the southern and central Plains, especially from eastern Oklahoma and Kansas into western Missouri as a 40-50+ kt southwesterly low level jet develops ahead of the wave, supporting strong moisture advection into a region of increasing ascent. Showers and storms are expected to develop with the potential for heavy rates increasing as PWs increase to ~1.75 inches and right-entrance region upper jet forcing supports large- scale ascent. Hi-res guidance indicates that elevated storms can be expected during the late afternoon across portions of eastern Oklahoma into the lower Missouri Valley before a more robust line of storms develops and advances east ahead of a sweeping cold front. In addition to the potential for more than one round of storms, a period of training convection may elevate the risk for localized heavy amounts and flash flooding. A Slight Risk was added where both the HREF and REFS show high neighborhood probabilities for accumulations over 3 inches. Both also showed neighborhood probabilities for amounts exceeding 3-hr FFGs increasing into the 20-30+ percent range across portions of the area during 0-6Z Tuesday timeframe. Farther to the north, a Marginal Risk covering portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest was maintained. Widespread coverage of 1-2 inch amounts across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota is forecast. However, not expecting any widespread flash flooding concerns as limited instability will keep rainfall rates in check. Pereira Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Nov 04 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PORTIONS OF MID- SOUTH... ...Lower and Mid-Mississippi Valley... The general consensus of the hi-res guidance shows that storms developing late Monday will remain ongoing along an advancing cold front extending from the mid Mississippi Valley back into eastern Texas Tuesday morning. There is some indication in the guidance that heavy rates and continued southwest-northeast training may elevate the threat for heavy amounts and flash flooding from the Ozark region into southeastern Missouri. This suggests an upgrade may need to be considered at some point, but for now maintained the outlook at just a Marginal Risk. Farther east, a Slight Risk centered over the Mid-South was maintained -- where deep moisture and favorable upper jet forcing are expected to support re-intensifying storms capable of producing heavy rainfall rates. The previous Slight Risk was largely maintained, but adjusted a little to reflect the REFS high neighborhood probabilities for 2-3+ inches across this area. ...Florida... Easterly flow will weaken this period; however, with anomalous moisture remaining in place, cannot rule out additional localized heavy rainfall amounts resulting in at least isolated flash flooding concerns, especially in urbanized locations and areas previously inundated with heavy rains. Pereira Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... Activity developing late Tuesday may continue into the early part of the period, with a ribbon of deep moisture and favorable upper jet forcing contributing to additional heavy rates and possible flash flooding across parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio valley early on. Storms are forecast to shift east into the central and southern Appalachians later in the day, where orographic effects may help bolster totals across parts of the region and raise flash flooding concerns, especially in the more sensitive parts of the central Appalachians. Pereira Day 4 and Day 5 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent on both Thursday and Friday. While there will be widespread rainfall across the Northeast for the first time in 2.5 weeks in most areas, the combination of those dry soils and poor instability limiting rainfall rates should both work to prevent any flash flooding. The area will continue to be watched should a future Marginal Risk be needed. Wegman Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt $$