FOUS30 KWBC 131551
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1051 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

Recent Doppler radar imagery from Miami is indicating a nearly
stationary area of thunderstorms south of Key Biscayne, and just
east of Biscayne National Park as a result of a compact mesoscale
convective vortex. Moderate showers are ongoing across portions of
the Miami-Dade metro area, with some heavier rainfall possible at
times south of the city. However, the majority of the CAM guidance
supports the core of this convection remaining over the coastal
waters through this afternoon, and therefore no new risk areas are
currently warranted at this time. Should things evolve differently
than currently expected, a special ERO issuance could be needed
later today.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt