FOUS30 KWBC 112023 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 323 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Wed Nov 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... A small Marginal Risk was introduced to South Florida as thunderstorms develop near an approaching shortwave, remnant frontal boundary, and afternoon seabreeze. By 21-22Z, recent runs of the HRRR depict one or two cells with 2-3" rainfall totals near the urban corridor in South Florida, which could lead to isolated flooding in poorly drained urban areas later today. Asherman Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Asherman Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 14 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Asherman Day 4 and Day 5 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 14 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 16 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA, AS WELL AS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA OF WASHINGTON... ...Eastern Texas/Western Louisiana... It remains a complicated forecast with split flow across the southern Plains and northern Gulf this period, with the models differing on the impacts of both the southern and northern stream features. The GFS is more bullish, producing heavier rainfall associated with the southern stream wave as it moves across southern Texas on Saturday. With the GFS becoming more of an outlier and with even its solution indicating that the heavier amounts will likely be confined with the greater instability along the immediate coast, or offshore, opted to remove the Marginal Risk from southern Texas on Day 4. As southerly flow and moisture advection increases ahead of the northern stream low, the potential for heavy rain is expected to increase on Sunday. Maintained the Day 5 Marginal Risk, which remains consistent with the anticipated axis of strong southerly flow becoming established across eastern Texas into neighboring Louisiana. Within this area, expect the greater threat for heavy amounts and possible flash flooding to center along with the deeper moisture and greater instability near the upper Texas coast into interior southeastern Texas. Pereira ...Western Washington... A second weak Atmospheric River is expected to impact western portions of Washington in the day 4/Saturday time frame. Wet antecedent conditions will be in place following an initial Atmospheric River mid- to late week, with the additional rainfall possibly leading to isolated flooding, particularly from the coast to the windward side of the Olympics. The latest guidance generally agrees on totals in the 1-3" range which are on the lighter side impact- wise for the region, and amounts with the initial Atmospheric River have trended downward a bit as well, so the risk may ultimately not materialize if current trends continue. Putnam Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt $$