FOUS30 KWBC 052058
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 2056Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...

The trailing tail of a cold front advancing offshore the East Coast
will be slowly moving through central portions of the state during
this period; which will provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to fire up along within the moist tropical airmass.
Hi-res guidance is suggesting several hours where rainfall rates
pulsate between 0.50"/hr to 3+"/hr. These rates may reach or exceed
local FFG in isolated locations therefore a Marginal Risk area was
raised.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

21Z update... Maintained the Marginal Risk area with no
adjustments made.

Campbell

A cold front will be passing over Florida and provide a focus for
above average moisture there and possibly into Gulf Coastal areas.
The strongest signals from the 05/00Z numerical guidance was for
the heaviest rainfall to be off-shore on Tuesday. Even so...post-
frontal on-shore flow has could allow for some showers and
thunderstorms to come on-shore with localized downpours.

Bann

Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt