FOUS30 KWBC 102027 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 427 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL, SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... 16Z Update:The Marginal Risk ERO was extended northward to cover the Kansas City metro and northeastern Kansas in coordination with KEAX and KTOP. Rainfall reports and radar estimates show 2-4 inches fell last night and flash flood guidance has lowered to half an inch to an inch, including the KC metro. A warm front lifting into the region in the over-night period will likely foster a shield of rain with embedded convection that may drop an inch or two of rain in a few hours. Background hydrological conditions warrant a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the possibility of exceeding flash flood guidance. Over Missouri, the Marginal risk was extended farther eastward into the Springfield CWA based on current radar trends and two inch HREF neighborhood probabilities (40-70%). Previous Discussion: A west-east orientated frontal boundary will be dropping southward through the period while PW values of +2-2.5 standard deviations advect northward across the region as the low level flow strengthens. Meanwhile, shortwave energy pushing northeastward into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support areas of slow moving convection along this front, locally heavy rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall across these areas. While areal averages are generally expected to be less than 1.5 inches, there are signals for isolated maximums of 3-4+ inches per the latest CAM guidance. The Marginal Risk area for excessive rainfall was maintained from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to southwest Missouri. Wilder/Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Southern Plains... Gulf moisture will continue to advect northward with PW anomalies above seasonal normals across the Southern Plains. Upper dynamics will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough entering the West Coast, as well as embedded short waves. As ridging builds in across the east, this will also promote strong southerly flow and a low level jet over the Southern Plains to continue to advect moisture and instability into the area. At the surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve as an initiating mechanism for convection in the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will migrate eastward through the Permian Basin and Western Rolling Plains, eventually making headway into the adjacent Concho Valley and lower Trans Pecos. As cells merge due to cold pool mergers and low-level jet initiation, a large cluster of heavy rainfall will ensue through the rest of Saturday night into Sunday morning. The latest model guidance remains unchanged in depicting a signal for 2-4 inches possible from the Concho Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern Oklahoma. Neighborhood 24 hr QPF HREF probabilities show a strong signal for 50-80% for 2 inches for this region and 40-70% for 3 inches. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across portions of the Southern Plains, especially the areas referenced above. ...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes... A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall was introduced across Wisconsin and northern Michigan. Moisture will increase along a warm front lifting northward through the region and will likely see storms fire along the boundary during the afternoon. The overall QPF footprint looks fairly modest in the 1" range, but hydrological concerns from melting snow and high river levels may allow for runoff concerns. Flash flooding prospects will be more isolated in general, however, we will be monitoring the combination of snow melt and heavy rainfall very carefully as high SWE levels over the northern Great Lakes are likely to pose problems in the next several days. A Flood Watch is already in effect across the Michigan U.P. as a result of the impending pattern. Wilder/Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Central Texas... Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the Southern/Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given high moisture presence, favorable wind shear and instability in place. A meandering dry line across the region will provide a focus for backbuilding cells. With limited eastward progression of the QPF footprint expected during this period, there is a growing threat for flash flood concerns across portions of Hill Country to the I-35 corridor south of Dallas. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is now in effect for central Texas for the threat with a Marginal Risk extending northeastward through Oklahoma and adjacent areas of Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas. ...Northern Michigan... A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains across northern Michigan on Sunday as moisture transport from the south will interact with a frontal boundary across northern Michigan. This will provide a lifting mechanism for additional showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance averaged around 1-2 inches of rain in the 24 hour period. Snow melt concerns and high river levels will increase the possibility for run-off, similarly to Saturday. The area of interest will shift a bit east to encompass more of the eastern Michigan U.P., as well as the northern portion of the mitt in Michigan. Wilder/Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt