FOUS30 KWBC 110808
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon May 11 2026 - 12Z Tue May 12 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST...

Renewed convection expected along the Gulf coast as a strong cold
front pushes south into the Gulf. Sea breeze and pooling PW values
of 1.5 to 2.0 inches will help enhance rainfall along the central
Gulf Coast. Recent rainfall has increased soil saturation for
parts of the region which in turn reduces the amounts needed for
isolated instances of flash flooding. The latest guidance has areal
averages of 1 to 3 inches with very local maximums of 4+ inches.
The environment will be conducive for progressive storm motion
which may limit the threat for flooding problems, however isolated
flash flooding with be possible especially over sensitive soils. A
Marginal Risk remains in effect from eastern Texas to the Florida
Panhandle.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue May 12 2026 - 12Z Wed May 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed May 13 2026 - 12Z Thu May 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Campbell

Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt