FOUS30 KWBC 020817
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat May 02 2026 - 12Z Sun May 03 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....

A progressive upper trough is expected to help focus and sustain
additional showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern
Florida into southeast Georgia today into day into the early
morning hours of Sunday. The atmospheric setup still promotes a
relatively favorable environment suitable for localized heavy
rainfall. Flash Flood Guidance values may come down just a bit
given the rainfall moving across the region prior to the start of
the Day 1 period at 12/02 but the expectation is that the FFG
values should not come down significantly. As a result...even if rainfall
rates on the order of 1- to 2-inch per hour occurs the impact may
only prove to be short-lived run off problems or ponding in
regions of poor drainage and/or urban areas.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun May 03 2026 - 12Z Mon May 04 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THEM SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY...

Maintained the Marginal Risk area for a portion of the southeastern
Florida peninsula on Sunday. The area was along and south of a
southward advancing front where the airmass was characterized by
CAPE on the order of 500 to 1000 J per kg and precipitable water
values are forecast to be around 1.5 inches. Given the recent
dry spell, it appears that the greatest risk of excessive rainfall
will be in urban areas where the surface is largely impervious to
water. With the front progressing farther south with each model
run...the amount of territory at risk keeps shrinking and there may
be little to no need for an excessive rainfall area shortly.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon May 04 2026 - 12Z Tue May 05 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt