FOUS30 KWBC 050724
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become
convectively active by Day 3, though uncertainty remains high as
instability still looks to be the main limiting factor. While many
models indicate unproblematic rainfall totals, other models (the
00z GFS in particular) depict the potential for localized training
of convective cells along the front with heavy rainfall within
nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained an inherited
MRGL risk for now with localized flash flooding possible should 3"+
totals occur over a short period in a relatively sensitive area.

Churchill


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt