FOUS30 KWBC 050827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue May 05 2026 - 12Z Wed May 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

Deep layer southwesterly flow had drawn Gulf moisture into parts
of the Plains and then downstream toward the Great Lakes and the
Ohio Valley. The resulting showers and thunderstorms today will be
able to tap into an atmosphere that generally has 1.5 inch
precipitable water or greater extending as far north as Ohio by the
overnight hours. The southeastward adjustment of the Marginal Risk
area still looks good and spans the placement of the 2 inch
contour shown by a handful of ARW-core and NMM-core ensemble
members. So few changes were needed and were not made due to a
fundamental shift in forecast reasoning.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed May 06 2026 - 12Z Thu May 07 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...

Maintained the slight southward shift of the previously issued Slight
Risk area introduced a couple of days ago. The coverage and
rainfall intensity should be increasing on Wednesday as a large
scale trough over the northern Plains continues to amplify and
result in a 140 kt to 160 kt upper level jet over the Tennessee
Valley during the latter part of the period. The resulting upper
divergence, steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing
moisture and instability should result in convection capable of
producing heavy rainfall rates and embedded areas of rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches as suggested by the latest run of the
RRFS. There is a fairly wide spread in the north/south placement of
that heavier axis. As a result...the Slight area was expanded
somewhat and tended to cover the greatest overlap of higher QPF and
exceedance probabilities. Thinking is that there are some
probabilities supportive of a higher-end slight risk embedded
within the broader Slight. The continued amplification of the upper
trough should keep the convection moving southward with time
during the overnight hours.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu May 07 2026 - 12Z Fri May 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of a surface cold front
will be lingering into Thursday from parts of the Gulf coast region
northeastward into parts of Georgia and South Carolina. At this
point...rainfall rates look to be decreasing as the better upper
level dynamics pull off to the northeast and low level flow becomes
directed along...rather than normal...to the front. Maintained a
Marginal Risk area where there could be overlap with areas somewhat
higher soil moisture content from recent rainfall. Overall the
rainfall looks to be more beneficial than not.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt