FOUS30 KWBC 101524 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1124 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sun May 10 2026 - 12Z Mon May 11 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...16Z Update... The Slight Risk area was expanded a bit with this update, mostly towards the south but also to include the rest of the DFW Metroplex. Clusters of storms are expected to develop this afternoon, likely as a continuation of the showers and storms ongoing currently over Oklahoma, but developing further south into Texas. Much of the convective activity is expected to congeal south and west of the Metroplex, but urban concerns and some expected development over the Metroplex still heighten the flash flooding risk into the lower-end Slight category. Meanwhile, while convection will be more numerous and strong further south and west, less urban development may help to mitigate the flash flooding threat a bit. By late evening, around 03Z/10pm CDT or so, the convection is expected to have organized into a mostly single line of storms that will progressively shift southeast towards the Gulf. This should greatly mitigate the flash flooding threat by that point and beyond. Thus, the flash flooding threat is greatest in the late afternoon and evening while the storms are still organizing and therefore have more chaotic and slow forward motions. Wegman ...Previous Discussion... The overall forecast philosophy for the new Day 1 period remains largely consistent with the previous thinking, though an upgrade to a Slight Risk has been introduced for portions of Central and North Texas. While some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of the convective elements, a growing signal for higher- end rainfall totals is becoming evident in the latest guidance. Totals of 2-4 inches are increasingly likely across portions of Central and North Texas by the late afternoon and evening, supported by a moist, unstable airmass and strong ascent. Deepening moisture is expected to pool along a composite surface boundary, with PWs climbing to around 1.5 inches near the intersection of the cold front and dryline. This moisture is expected to interact with strong low level convergence and increasing upper level divergence as a shortwave trough moves east, generating numerous storms capable of producing heavy rainfall rates. Further raising the concern for heavy amounts and potential flash flooding will be cell training. Storms developing along the boundary and ahead of the approaching wave may track over some areas repeatedly, leading to localized excessive totals. Both the HREF and RRFS indicate the potential for this setup, showing their highest probabilities for QPF exceeding 2 inches extending from parts of Central into North Texas, including southern sections of the DFW Metro. Therefore, the Slight Risk was introduced to reflect increasing confidence for scattered flash floods within this area. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded a bit, but remains centered across much of the same region, reflecting the potential for convective storms and heavy rainfall rates, though with less organization or lower confidence in the potential for heavy accumulations in comparison to the upgraded Slight Risk area. Pereira Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon May 11 2026 - 12Z Tue May 12 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than five percent. Pereira Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue May 12 2026 - 12Z Wed May 13 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than five percent. Pereira Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt