FOUS30 KWBC 061518
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1018 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Feb 06 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 07 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...

Maintained the Marginal risk area issued on Thursday afternoon across
the Olympics where there is a threat of lower end flood impacts on
Saturday. Models continue to show a weakening atmospheric river
will bring a 12-24 hr period of moderate rainfall to the outlook
area. NBM 24hr rainfall forecasts have consistently trended upward
over the past few days, with amounts in the 2-3" range...with the
amounts from the 00Z NBM totals nudging even closer to 3 inches.
Although much of the western U.S. has experienced a dry winter, the
Olympic range is one area where recent rainfall and streamflows
are actually both running a bit above average. This is not expected
to be a significant event; however, the combination of rainfall
magnitudes locally trending upwards and the currently elevated
streamflow suggests that some lower end flood impacts are possible.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt