FOUS30 KWBC 261840
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Feb 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 27 2026

16z update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

A non-zero threat for excessive rainfall will exist this afternoon
and evening, along and south of the cold front across the Deep
South. Overall moisture and limited expected unstable air should
limit overall convective coverage and narrow overall updrafts
further reducing overall rainfall totals. However, fairly ideal
deep layer steering/flow regime may allow for some of the those
up/downdrafts to repeat over a short-duration with fairly intense
bursts of rainfall.

HREF probabilities of 30-50% of .5 to 1"/hr peak around 22-06z
starting from northern MS across AL/N GA into central SC and sag
quickly southward that even 2"/3hr probability remain at or below
20% and very scattered/isolated in nature. As such, any flooding
concern would be due mainly to the quick succession of
training/repeat cells from west to east before the whole line drops
south and likely limited to urban or very poor drainage locations
that typically see issues. While the CSU First Guess ERO suggests
a small stripe of 5-10% coverage from central AL to central GA,
the official forecast will remain 0-5%, i.e. below categorical
Marginal Risk for this update

Gallina

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 28 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt