FOUS30 KWBC 131611 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1111 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE OZARK PLATEAU... 1600Z Update... The 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance still largely support the idea of a Marginal Risk being maintained across the southern Plains involving convective initiation that will take place this evening and evolve in basically two rounds overnight. Initial shortwave energy coupled with strengthening warm air advection/moisture transport across western to northwest TX this evening will favor at least semi-organized convection here, with elevated convection then evolving near and poleward of a front across central to northeast OK and adjacent areas of the Ozark Plateau through early Saturday morning. The morning guidance shows a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts facilitating an environment conducive for heavy showers and thunderstorms that may have some localized training potential involving central to northeast OK and perhaps parts of southeast KS and southwest MO overnight. Stronger height falls/shortwave energy will eject out across west TX by early Saturday morning which coupled with increasing low-level moisture and modest instability with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg should support renewed convective development here. Overall, the heaviest rains will likely tend to be over areas of central to northeast OK this period with some 2 to 4 inch totals possible where any cell- training occurs. However, antecedent conditions are dry which should be able to generally handle these rains. That said, some spotty 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates are possible which coupled with some cell- training may foster some localized and mainly urban runoff problems. The Marginal Risk was ever so slightly expanded a bit more over western TX and also into the Ozark Plateau. Orrison Previous discussion... A deep upper-level trough will advance eastward across the Southwest today. Diffluence and vorticity will spread over the Southern Plains tonight, where showers and thunderstorms are expected to proliferate along surface boundaries stemming from an area of surface low pressure. Instability will be modest 500-700 J/Kg, but moisture will be quite anomalous, (PWATs 4-5 stndv & 99th percentile) due to the arrival of subtropical Pacific moisture. A mitigating factor will be that antecedent conditions are mostly dry (moderate to severe drought + low RSM) especially on the western end of the risk area. Kebede Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MID-SOUTH... A mid-latitude cyclone develops and deepens beneath a PVA over the Southern/Central Plains Friday night into Saturday. This system will combine two separate moisture regimes: one from the subtropical Pacific and one from the Gulf of Mexico to produce scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains, Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. The slight and marginal risk areas were expanded from what was depicted on our previous issuance. This was based on a broader qpf footprint signal in the latest guidance. Some showers and thunderstorms from today's excessive rainfall threat will shift into Missouri and the Midwest today, while the main threat develops within the warm sector to the south. A line of convection is expected to develop over the ArkLaTex this evening and propagate eastward through the Lower Mississippi Valley, where favorable jet dynamics (strong LLJ 30-40kts and strong upper level divergence) could produce efficient rain rates. PWATs will also be 2-3 stndv above normal (90th percentile) from eastern Texas to northeastern Arkansas, where the current slight risk is in place. It's worth noting that the Euro has a slightly more southerly focused QPF footprint than the GFS and our current slight risk area depict. Kebede Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST... The inherited marginal risk area over parts of the Mid-Atlantic (central Virginia) down to the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, was mostly unchanged. Contours were expanded north into central Virginia due in part to an increased signal in the GFS, but also due to clustering between several Euro, Canadian and GEFS ensemble members. Another marginal area was considered for parts of the northern and central California coast, but was ultimately nixed in coordination with local offices due to a lack of favorable moisture, forcing and instability. All of which become more pronounced over Southern California on by day 4. Kebede Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt