FOUS30 KWBC 121948 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 348 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Tue May 12 2026 - 12Z Wed May 13 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN FLORIDA... ..16Z Update.. No change made to the existing MRGL Risk area over the I-95 corridor of FL. Updated 12Z HREF neighborhood probabilities continue to depict a high likelihood (over 80%) of rainfall exceeding 5 inches, particularly over the urban center of Jacksonville, and moderate chances (around 50%) of rainfall locally exceeding 8 inches. However, due to high FFGs, and the ongoing drought conditions throughout much of the Southeast, most rainfall will be beneficial. The main concerns continue to be isolated urban flooding, particularly in Jacksonville down to Miami. Blanco-Alcala ..Previous Discussion.. Heavy rainfall possible along the eastern coast of Florida during this period as a cold front advances southward through the state. Onshore flow along with pooled PW values in excess of 1.75 inches will help fuel enhanced rainfall initially. Diurnal seabreeze effects will interact further with the cold front, with a convergence axis expected along the east coast of Florida. HREF neighborhood probabilities suggest a high likelihood (over 90%) of QPF exceeding 3 inches, and a moderate chance (around 60-80%) over the urban center of Jacksonville. Due to ongoing drought conditions, most of the rainfall will be beneficial which will result in a low-end marginal threat for much of the eastern coastline of Florida. Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed May 13 2026 - 12Z Thu May 14 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than five percent. Blanco-Alcala Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu May 14 2026 - 12Z Fri May 15 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than five percent. Blanco-Alcala Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt