FOUS30 KWBC 061551
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1151 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...

16Z update... Consensus continues to favor heavier rainfall
concentrating over portions of the central peninsula and the
eastern coastline with hourly rates 0.50"/hr to 4.00"/hr. There is
a trend for western portions of the peninsula to have a few hours
with hourly rates up to 1.5"/hr however with the sea breeze in
place the cells will track back toward the center of the state.
With that in mind there was some adjustments of the western
boundary made to account for this but kept the western coastline
out of the Marginal.

Campbell

Previous discussion... Maintained the Marginal Risk area
introduced on Sunday across portions of Florida as a trailing tail
of a cold front advancing offshore the East Coast will be slowly
moving through central portions of the state. The front will
provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms to fire up along
within the moist tropical airmass. The 00Z HREF and RRFS
neighborhood probabilities showed several hours during which the
rainfall rates pulsate between 0.50"/hr to 3+"/hr mainly from this
afternoon into the evening. Consequently there were not changes
made.

Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A cold front will be passing over Florida which allows for deep
moisture to pool across the southern two-thirds of the peninsula with
precipitable water values reaching into the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range
and moisture flux convergence along the front acts to focus and
support convection. The concern about excessive rainfall arises
from the locally heavy rainfall rates from any convection that
develops within such an environment as well as the fact that the
front should be slowing its southward motion keeps the window of
opportunity open longer for enhanced rainfall totals.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 09 2026

...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A front draped across the southern portion of the Florida
peninsula acting as a focus for thunderstorms capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall across parts of the Florida peninsula. Some
of the guidance has a mesoscale low over the eastern Gulf that
begins to move towards the peninsula and starts to lift the front
northward during the latter part of the period. The inference is
that low level flow will be strengthening...especially on the
eastern side of the peninsula...which may enhance rainfall
amounts compared with amounts on Tuesday. Given the lack of
agreement within the suite of numerical guidance on where...or
if...this occurs preludes more than a Marginal risk area.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt