AWUS01 KWNH 310032

FFGMPD

FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-310330-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0949

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

831 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019



Areas affected...Far southeast AL...western FL Panhandle...far

southwest GA



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 310030Z - 310330Z



Summary...Convective segments moving across the western FL

Panhandle toward far southwest GA will produce hourly rainfall

rates near 2.50 inches, which poses a flash flood threat through

the evening hours.



Discussion...Regional radars showed convective line segments

moving across the far western FL Panhandle are moving through an

axis of 1.75/2.00 inch precipitable water, transported north on a

20/30 knot low level southwest flow from the Gulf of Mexico. The

storms are forming/moving through an axis of 2000/3000 J/KG of

MUCAPE (the 00z TLH sounding showed nearly 2000 J/KG of SBCAPE in

place).



Both the KTAE and KEVX radars showed hourly rainfall rates over

2.00 inches with these convective elements over Santa Rosa and

Okaloosa counties in FL as they cross the moisture ribbon. The

environment is expected to remain favorable through 31/03z for the

storms to continue producing hourly rainfall rates this high. The

convective elements should remain progressive, as the mid level

flow should keep the storms moving. It should be noted that the

most recent HRRR runs have not been handling the activity well,

generally underplaying the threat and keeping further north into

AL/GA.



Three hour flash flood guidance values are generally above 3.00

inches across much of the area. However, these storms produced

local 4.00/5.00 inch rainfall amounts (per the KENV radar) over

portions of south central Alabama. These rainfall amounts could be

sufficient to support a low end flash flood risk through about

31/0330z.



Hayes



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...



ATTN...RFC...SERFC...



LAT...LON   31508521 31488438 31128421 30818459 30548524

            30318604 30228666 30278674 30638676 31158625

            31328591