FXUS62 KJAX 110150 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 850 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Showers with the approaching cold front to the northwest are still several counties away from our forecast area. The forecast remains on track with some slight changes on timing and prospects for thunderstorms. Limited instability remains the primary limiting factor for higher converge of thundrestorm.s Overall, have slowed the timing of the precip slightly initially, but continued the ramp up in POPs near and just before sunrise as the convection pushes east in association with the cold front. Still some small threat for stronger winds in the convection Wednesday morning with a lower threat for any brief tornado that would be embedded within the line. Made some slight adjustments to the precip band on Wednesday, which leaned toward a slightly faster movement of the line of showers as the front progresses steadily east and off the coast by early afternoon. Have bumped up wind gusts for Wednesday, which look like easily in the 25-35 mph range and can't rule out 40 mph gusts outside of the convection. Certainly within some stronger convection we could see about 40-50 mph given the stronger winds aloft. No significant changes to the marine forecast with small craft advisory starting later tonight. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Warm south-southwesterly flow continues with the area between departing ridging into the Atlantic and a large upper trough swinging into the SE US. Meanwhile, a cold front over LA/MS/AL will shift eastward toward GA tonight and likely enter our far inland SE GA zones by sunrise. Isolated pre-frontal showers will develop later tonight and spread across the area mainly after midnight. Amounts will be light. Attention then shifts to convection developing along the main frontal boundary. A subtropical jet over the Gulf Coast region will help develop strong deep- layer shear (55-70 kts) along the front. The main limiting factors for stronger convection will be minimal instability and warmer temps aloft. However, this high shear, low CAPE environment could produce a couple of strong storms capable of producing gusty winds and a weak, brief tornado. Best chances will be far inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley in the morning hours after sunrise. Cloudy skies and warm air will allow overnight low temperatures to only drop into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024 A cold front from the northwest will make it's way through the area throughout the day on Wednesday, promoting high rain coverage across the area, with embedded isolated thunderstorm potential as well. Rainfall totals will not be significant, with most of the area only seeing about 0.25-1.0 inches, with the higher amounts over Georgia. Gusty southwesterly winds will be in place ahead of the frontal passage, with a few strong thunderstorms possible with gusts near 40 mph, and a low chance of an isolated severe storm on Wednesday. Following the cold frontal passage, winds will shift northwesterly bringing in much colder and drier air Wednesday night. Lows will likely reach freezing for most of inland southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida, with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere including the immediate coast. It will be chilly on Thursday, with highs staying in the 50s Jacksonville northward, with sunny skies and northerly winds. Lows in southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley area on Thursday night will approach freezing, while the coast and portions of inland northeast Florida stay above 40 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024 High pressure will build north of the area, allowing for temperatures to gradually warm up each day Friday through the weekend. Generally, highs will be in the 60s to 70s, with the cooler temperatures in southeast Georgia. Lows will be above freeze/frost concerns during this period, with the lowest lows across inland southeast Georgia in the mid 40s, with 50s in northeast Florida. A weak front will be near the Atlantic coast this weekend, allowing for isolated showers over the near shore waters, potentially reaching the coast Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024 VFR clouds expected through at least 06z-07z, though low level moisture will be increasing from the deep southwesterly flow as a cold front approaches. Lower clouds will begin to increase from about 08z onward as the cold front moves in from the northwest. A line of pre-frontal showers and possibly embedded isolated thunderstorms arrives at the TAF sites between 12z and 17z. We begin MVFR cigs before that time and we also can't rule out a brief period IFR cigs, also brief IFR vsby if the line is more solid as it comes through Wednesday morning. Probability of thunder looks fairly low so left out of TAFs for now. The precip and cloudiness should be diminishing after 18z with more prevailing VFR clouds near and after 21z. For winds, light southerly winds of 5-10 kt much of tonight but increases Wed morning. Winds shift to the west- northwest after the frontal passage. We also indicated LLWS for the morning hours, could begin as early as 08z-09z, with winds in the 1500-2000 ft layer of about 35-40 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024 High pressure will move off to the east of the region through Tonight. A cold front will sweep southeast across the area on Wednesday. Winds and seas will increase to small craft advisory levels ahead of and in the wake of the front. Gusts to gale force will be possible for the offshore waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will build from the west northwest Wednesday night through Thursday. Strong high pressure will build to the north northeast Friday through the weekend, with an inverted trough developing over the coastal waters. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible again on Friday. Rip Currents: Moderate risk for rip currents continues for area beaches through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 67 32 56 / 70 90 0 0 SSI 64 71 38 57 / 40 80 0 0 JAX 64 72 34 59 / 40 80 0 0 SGJ 66 74 38 61 / 20 80 0 0 GNV 65 72 33 60 / 40 80 0 0 OCF 64 74 35 61 / 30 80 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ474. && $$