FXUS62 KJAX 090609 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Mostly cloudy and cooler today with multilayered clouds across the area as a broad mid level low migrates from across SE GA early this morning toward the NE Gulf, then begins to slowly shift eastward across the local area this evening. Weak SW steering flow < 10 kts with high moisture (PWATs nearing 2.2 inches) will continue to fuel scattered to numerous showers and storms today, while the presence of the cooler temperatures aloft with the upper level low will bring an increased strong to isolated severe storm risk. The ingredients for precipitation are in place, but convective evolution is a little trickier and not completely diurnally driven today with the upper level low. With the upper low and high moisture, expect an increase in convection across the Suwannee River Valley and SE GA through the morning hours under SW flow, with more diurnally driven convection across NE FL east of Highway 301 toward the coast in the afternoon and into the evening where the east coast sea breeze and boundaries coverage. As evident by morning radar, weak steering flow will bring slow and erratic storm motion. With morning convection across much of SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley, instability will be tempered somewhat limiting strong to severe storm risk, but, localized flooding rainfall will be possible. At this time, the Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for our area. The better risk for severe storms capable of wet downbursts of 40-60 mph will be this afternoon and into the evening, especially for locations west of Highway 301 toward the Atlantic coast where more diurnal instability can build and the east coast sea breeze moving inland provides added lift/convergence. Rainfall coverage will gradually dwindle through the night as the upper level slowly edges eastward across the area with stronger lift shifting offshore of the local coast. SW flow continues, so early morning Gulf Coast convection edging inland is expected once again. High temperatures will trend 'cooler' today in the upper 80s to low 90s given cloud cover and early onset convection for our inland zones. Overnight lows continue to range in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Weaker southwest flow will continue Thursday and Friday, bringing in plenty of moisture off the Gulf. Numerous showers and storms are expected to develop in the afternoons and evenings as sea breezes push inland and boundaries interact. With increased cloud cover and storms, temperatures will near normal, with highs generally in the lower 90s on Thursday before heating up again Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 It'll be a hot weekend, with highs rising into the mid to upper 90s with a little less cloud cover in place. Heat indices will generally max out around 100-105 degrees, although depending on timing of convection, some locations may see heat indices above 105 this weekend. By Tuesday, temperatures will start a downward trend back into the upper 80s/low 90s. Rinse-and-repeat forecast Saturday through Tuesday with diurnal storms popping up each afternoon, although with W/NW flow this weekend, PWATs and precipitation chances will be a bit lower than we've seen recently. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 VCSH for SSI early this morning with showers and storms breaking out inland under an mid level low. Farther south across NE FL terminals, multilayered clouds will continue through the morning under SSW winds < 8 kts. Still expect an east coast sea breeze at SSI, CRG and SGJ mid afternoon, with VCTS at all terminals mid afternoon into the early evening with weak storm motion making convection slowly dissipate. TEMPO groups will be added as needed based on radar trends later today for TS and associated heavy rainfall restrictions. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 High pressure extending across central Florida and a surface trough across Georgia will bring prevailing southwest winds, shifting onshore each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. Scattered showers and storms will move offshore of the coast in the afternoon and early evening. Some storms may produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. Rip Currents: Moderate risk today and Thu for NE FL beaches and low risk for SE GA beaches as easterly swells have fallen compared to previous days. The rip current risk will be greater in the afternoon as SE winds develop with the sea breeze. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 73 92 73 / 60 40 60 20 SSI 88 77 90 77 / 50 30 50 20 JAX 92 74 93 75 / 50 30 60 10 SGJ 90 75 92 75 / 50 30 50 10 GNV 91 73 93 72 / 60 20 60 10 OCF 91 74 92 73 / 50 20 60 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$