FXUS62 KJAX 021720 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 120 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 903 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A surface high pressure ridge centered to the east will extend across the area Today. Weak troughing aloft coupled with sea breeze interactions will result in a few showers and storms inland this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will range from the lower 80s along the coast where the sea breeze will limit the highs, to the upper 80s to around 90 further inland. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Widespread showers and storms will be in play this upcoming weekend as a closed low over the Ohio Valley drags a trailing cold front across the SE CONUS and towards SE GA and NE FL. Saturday will be the warmer day of the weekend as the cold front will still be to the west of the area. Inland highs in the upper 80s, with some locations possibly reaching the 90s, while coastal locations will remain in the lower 80s thanks to the sea breeze. Scattered showers begin to move into SE GA during the early to mid afternoon hours as lingering moisture over the area will help for some development. Diurnal instability in addition to the sea breeze could help to see the development of thunderstorms across the area, SE GA in particular could see isolated severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range, in addition to small hail. Showers and storms continue into and through the overnight hours as the front begins to move across the area. Storms during the overnight hours not expected to be severe with the loss of diurnal instability. Sunday, scattered to numerous showers throughout the day as the cold front continues to slowly move through the area pushing through by the overnight hours into Monday. Scattered showers will develop by the morning and become numerous by the afternoon hours as the sea breezes begin to move inland. Thunderstorms are likely to develop as the frontal boundary and the sea breeze interact, with gusty winds and potentially some hail. Most activity will begin to taper off by the overnight hours as the frontal boundary moves offshore. With the passing front, in addition to showers for most of the day, daytime highs will likely remain in the lower 80s for far inland locations while coastal locations will reach into the mid/upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Chances of showers and storms will remain on Monday as the frontal boundary will linger over north central FL with the building of high pressure from the west. This will likely keep shower chances along the eastern locations of the local area as onshore flow from the northeast- east pushes the Atlantic sea breeze inland. By Tuesday, the front is expected to shift southward, clearing north central FL. High pressure will continue to build into area, bringing drier conditions to the area once again. Latest model runs, still show the aforementioned front lifting northward on Wednesday. Question still remains if there will be enough moisture to trigger any shower/storm development as drier air will continue to advect in from the north/northwest. For now, PoPs remain below 15% on Wednesday. Come Thursday, models indicate the high pressure will begin to shift northward, leaving the way open for the frontal boundary to lift northward as a warm front, bringing the chances for showers once again for our area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Prevailing VFR conditions this period. There could be a little fog at KVQQ overnight, but chance too low to mention at this time. Convection is expected for Saturday afternoon, but development at TAF sites should be just beyond this TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 High pressure shifts east and southeast of the local waters today and Saturday as a frontal system approaches from the west. Showers and storms will increase in coverage across the local waters this weekend. The front begins to stall across the Florida peninsula late Sunday into Monday continued elevated daily rain chances. High pressure builds north of the region Tuesday with a return of drier conditions through mid-week next week. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today and Saturday for all local beaches with elevated SE winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Light south-southeasterly flow will continue today and into Saturday morning, with breezier conditions along coastal locations. By Saturday afternoon winds shift to become southwesterly for inland locations ahead of an approaching cold front. With the dry airmass remaining in place, min RHs for locations along and west of the I-95 corridor will dip into the 30s this afternoon, then will tick up slightly over the weekend as the aforementioned frontal boundary nears the area. Small chances of showers and storms late this afternoon along the sea breeze mergers of the Gulf and Atlantic along western inland locations around the I-75 corridor. Ahead of this weekend's cold front, showers and storms will begin to move into the area on Saturday, with inland southeast Georgia potentially having isolated severe thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 63 87 64 81 / 10 30 50 60 SSI 70 82 69 83 / 0 20 40 60 JAX 66 88 66 87 / 0 20 30 60 SGJ 66 85 68 85 / 0 20 40 60 GNV 64 89 65 85 / 20 30 30 60 OCF 64 89 66 86 / 20 20 30 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$