FXUS62 KJAX 270600 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 200 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Diurnal convection got an earlier start for most today, and has now waned for almost the entire area. The only exception is lingering convection just north of Glynn County that spawned ahead of a cold front well north and east of the area. Some of this convection may clip areas furthest north and east in the CWA through the next few hours before moving offshore after midnight. Some patchy to areas of fog will also be possible over inland areas towards sunrise, especially where some of the heaviest rain fell today. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Pattern of diurnal bouts of showers and thunderstorms with stronger developments forming along the advancing sea breeze boundaries, outflow boundaries, and along areas of collision during the afternoon and evening hours will continue through the weekend. Moist southwesterly flow will have shifted to become more out of the north and northeast as remnants of the decaying dry frontal boundary to the north moves east and south over Atlantic waters and will act in altering the steering flow over the region. Potential for slow moving storms producing heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding during this period with PWAT values expected to range between 1.9 and 2.4 inches during this period. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s. Heat index values will rise to be above 100 degrees during this period with a potential for heat advisory conditions on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Steering flow is expected to to become less defined next week as high pressure over the Atlantic lifts off to the north. Daily bouts of convection will continue through this period with stronger developments expected to occur along sea breeze and outflow boundaries and along areas of collision. High temperatures for the beginning of next week will be close to the seasonal average with max temps reaching into the upper 80s and lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 156 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 VFR conditions with lingering mid to upper level clouds at 06z over the area. Some low vsby at times possible around GNV and VQQ in a few hours so continued to show MVFR vsby for now. An MVFR cig also possible ~11z-15z around SSI and GNV but low probabilities prevent including in TAFS at this time. Another active day for showers and storms mainly in the 19z-23z time frame, but lingering showers and storms likely around VQQ and GNV from 23z-03z. Have included TEMPO groups for most of the northeast FL sites, except for SGJ with PROB30 group due to lower confidence, and only a VCTS for SSI. MVFR and IFR with gusty winds expected in the TSRA. && .MARINE... Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Weak surface front will linger over the local waters today and Saturday with light southerly winds becoming onshore in the afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze. The front will shift south of the local waters late Sunday into Monday, with an increase in northeast winds as high pressure builds north of the region. The high will build east then southeast of the local waters through mid-week next week as surface fronts linger over Georgia, returning southerly winds over the local waters. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for all local beaches through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 73 90 72 / 50 50 50 10 SSI 90 77 88 78 / 60 30 50 10 JAX 93 74 90 74 / 80 40 70 10 SGJ 91 75 89 75 / 70 30 80 20 GNV 92 72 89 71 / 90 50 90 20 OCF 93 73 91 73 / 90 50 90 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$